Individual and Geospatial Determinants of Health Associated With School-Based Human Papillomavirus Immunization in Alberta: Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection causes nearly all cervical cancer cases and is a cause of anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. The incidence of HPV-associated cancers is inequitable, with an increased burden on marginalized groups in high-income countries. Understanding how immunization status varies by material and social deprivation, health system, and geospatial factors is valuable for prioritizing and planning HPV immunization interventions. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe school-based HPV immunization rates by individual and geospatial determinants of health in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: Health administrative data for male and female individuals born in 2004 in Alberta were used to determine HPV immunization status based on age and the number of doses administered in schools during the 2014/2015-2018/2019 school years. Immunization status and its relationship with material and social deprivation and health system factors were assessed by a logistic regression model. Geospatial clustering was assessed using Getis-Ord Gi* hot spot analysis. Mean scores of material and social deprivation and health system factors were compared between hot and cold spots without full HPV immunization using independent samples t tests. A multidisciplinary team comprising researchers and knowledge users formed a co-design team to design the study protocol and review the study results. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 45,207 youths. In the adjusted model, the odds of those who did not see their general practitioner (GP) within 3 years before turning 10 years old and not being fully immunized were 1.965 times higher (95% CI 1.855-2.080) than those who did see their GP. The odds of health system users with health conditions and health system nonusers not being fully immunized were 1.092 (95% CI 1.006-1.185) and 1.831 (95% CI 1.678-1.998) times higher, respectively, than health system users without health conditions. The odds of those who lived in areas with the most material and social deprivation not being fully immunized were 1.287 (95% CI 1.200-1.381) and 1.099 (95% CI 1.029-1.174) times higher, respectively, than those who lived in areas with the least deprivation. The odds of those who lived in rural areas not being fully immunized were 1.428 times higher (95% CI 1.359-1.501) than those who lived in urban areas. Significant hot spot clusters of individuals without full HPV immunization exist in rural locations on the northern and eastern regions of Alberta. Hot spots had significantly worse mean material deprivation scores (P=.008) and fewer GP visits (P=.001) than cold spots. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that material and social deprivation, health system access, and rural residency impact HPV immunization. Such factors should be considered by public health professionals in other jurisdictions and will be used by the Alberta co-design team when tailoring programs to increase HPV vaccine uptake in priority populations and regions.

Comparison of outcomes after appendectomy in First Nations and non-First Nations patients in Northern Alberta.

BACKGROUND: Internationally, Indigenous Peoples experience worse surgical outcomes than non-Indigenous patients, but equity of surgical care is less well studied in Canada. This study compares outcomes after appendectomy in First Nations and non-First Nations patients. METHODS: In this population-based study, we reviewed administrative data of patients who underwent appendectomy between Apr. 1, 2004, and Mar. 31, 2017, in Northern Alberta. Demographic variables and characteristics of surgical care for First Nations and non-First Nations patients were collected. We identified adverse outcomes by the presence of predefined administrative codes. We identified variables related to a complex postoperative course (at least 1 of wound dehiscence, surgical site infection, abscess, bowel obstruction, pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, sepsis, emergency department visit, readmission or death within 30 d after appendectomy) through a logistic regression model, and those related to longer length of stay using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 28 453 patients met the selection criteria, of whom 1737 (6.1%) had First Nations status. Compared to non-First Nations patients, First Nations patients were younger, lived farther away from the hospital of their appendectomy, were in lower socioeconomic quintiles, and had higher rates of obesity and diabetes (all p < 0.001). After adjustment for age, sex, distance to hospital, socioeconomic deprivation and comorbidities, First Nations status remained independently associated with higher rates of adverse outcomes (odds ratio 1.548, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.384-1.733) and longer lengths of stay (hazard ratio 0.877, 95% CI 0.832-0.924). CONCLUSION: Although rurality, comorbidities and socioeconomic status contributed to worse outcomes after appendectomy for First Nations patients, First Nations status remained independently associated with worse surgical outcomes. Surgical care, an integral component of health care delivery, must be improved for First Nations patients in order to achieve equitable health care.

Sex differences in post-operative outcomes following non-cardiac surgery.

It is uncertain whether sex is an independent risk factor for poor outcomes after non-cardiac surgery. We examined sex differences in short- and long-term mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery in Alberta, Canada. Using linked administrative databases, we identified patients undergoing one of 45 different non-cardiac surgeries who were hospitalized between 2008 and 2019. Adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) were reported for mortality at 30-days, 6-months, and 1-year stratified by sex. Secondary outcomes including all-cause hospitalization, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), hospitalization for infection, hospitalization for stroke, and hospitalization for bleeding were also analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression was adjusted for age, sex, surgery type, the components of the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. We identified 552,224 unique patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery of which 304,408 (55.1%) were female. Male sex was a predictor of mortality at 30-days (aOR 1.25 (1.14, 1.38), p<0.0001), 6-months (aOR 1.26 (1.20, 1.33), p<0.0001), and 1-year (aOR 1.25 (1.20, 1.31), p<0.0001). Similarly, male sex was a predictor of hospital readmission at 30-days (1.12 (1.09, 1.14), p<0.0001), 6-months (aOR 1.11 (1.10, 1.13), p<0.0001), and 1-year (aOR 1.06 (1.04, 1.07), p<0.0001). When the results were stratified by age, the effect of male sex on clinical outcome diminished for age ≥ 65years compared to younger patients. In conclusion, male patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery have higher risks of all-cause mortality and readmission after adjustment for baseline risk factor differences, particularly in those under 65-years-old. The overall incidence of readmission for stroke, bleeding, HF and ACS after non-cardiac surgery was low. The impact of male sex on clinical outcomes decreases with increasing age, suggesting the importance of considering the effect of both sex and age on clinical outcomes after non-cardiac surgery.

Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery in Major General Surgical Patients a Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic relevance, clinical characteristics, and 30-day outcomes associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) in major general surgery patients. BACKGROUND: MINS has been independently associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. The characteristics and prognostic importance of MINS in major general surgical patients have not been described. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of a representative sample of 22,552 noncardiac surgery patients 45 years or older, of whom 4490 underwent major general surgery in 24 centers in 13 countries. All patients had fifth-generation plasma high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) concentrations measured during the first 3 postoperative days. MINS was defined as a hsTnT of 20-65 ng/L and absolute change >5 ng/L or hsTnT ≥65 ng/L secondary to ischemia. The objectives of the present study were to determine (1) whether MINS is prognostically important in major general surgical patients, (2) the clinical characteristics of major general surgical patients with and without MINS, (3) the 30-day outcomes for major general surgical patients with and without MINS, and (4) the proportion of MINS that would have gone undetected without routine postoperative monitoring. RESULTS: The incidence of MINS in the major general surgical patients was 16.3% (95% CI, 15.3-17.4%). Thirty-day all-cause mortality in the major general surgical cohort was 6.8% (95% CI, 5.1%-8.9%) in patients with MINS compared with 1.2% (95% CI, 0.9%-1.6%) in patients without MINS ( P <0.01). MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality in major general surgical patients (adjusted odds ratio 4.7, 95% CI, 3.0-7.4). The 30-day mortality was higher both among MINS patients with no ischemic features (ie, no ischemic symptoms or electrocardiogram findings) (5.4%, 95% CI, 3.7%-7.7%) and among patients with 1 or more clinical ischemic features (10.6%, 95% CI, 6.7%-15.8%). The proportion of major general surgical patients who had MINS without ischemic symptoms was 89.9% (95% CI, 87.5-92.0). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 6 patients experienced MINS after major general surgery. MINS was independently associated with a nearly 5-fold increase in 30-day mortality. The vast majority of patients with MINS were asymptomatic and would have gone undetected without routine postoperative troponin measurement.

Direct oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation in early postoperative valve repair or bioprosthetic replacement.

OBJECTIVE: Despite increased use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), limited evidence guides their use in the early postoperative period after bioprosthetic valve implantation in patients with atrial fibrillation. Our objective was to describe the efficacy and safety of DOACs and warfarin in the first 3 months after surgical bioprosthetic valve replacement or repair in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: This was a retrospective, registry-informed cohort study of surgical patients who underwent bioprosthetic valve replacement or repair, had concomitant atrial fibrillation and received oral anticoagulation at discharge. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of death, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism; the primary safety outcome was a composite of major bleeding. Key secondary outcomes were comparative analyses of primary outcomes, temporal anticoagulation prescribing patterns, and 30-day readmission rates. RESULTS: A total of 1743 patients were included. Of the 570 patients in the DOAC group, 17 (2%) met the composite efficacy outcome and 55 (10%) met the composite safety outcome. Of the 1173 patients receiving warfarin, 41 (3%) and 114 (10%) met the composite efficacy and safety outcomes, respectively. Comparative secondary analysis was not statistically significant for either the efficacy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-1.55, P = .59) or safety (adjusted odds ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.34, P = .76) outcomes. The 30-day readmission rates were similar between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest DOACs may be safe and effective alternatives to warfarin in the early postoperative period after valve repair or surgical bioprosthetic replacement. Confirmation awaits adequately powered prospective studies.

Beyond the revised cardiac risk index: Validation of the hospital frailty risk score in non-cardiac surgery.

Frailty is an established risk factor for adverse outcomes following non-cardiac surgery. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) is a recently described frailty assessment tool that harnesses administrative data and is composed of 109 International Classification of Disease variables. We aimed to examine the incremental prognostic utility of the HFRS in a generalizable surgical population. Using linked administrative databases, a retrospective cohort of patients admitted for non-cardiac surgery between October 1st, 2008 and September 30th, 2019 in Alberta, Canada was created. Our primary outcome was a composite of death, myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest at 30-days. Multivariable logistic regression was undertaken to assess the impact of HFRS on outcomes after adjusting for age, sex, components of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and peri-operative biomarkers. The final cohort consisted of 712,808 non-cardiac surgeries, of which 55·1% were female and the average age was 53·4 +/- 22·4 years. Using the HFRS, 86.3% were considered low risk, 10·7% were considered intermediate risk and 3·1% were considered high risk for frailty. Intermediate and high HFRS scores were associated with increased risk of the primary outcome with an adjusted odds ratio of 1·61 (95% CI 1·50-1.74) and 1·55 (95% CI 1·38-1·73). Intermediate and high HFRS were also associated with increased adjusted odds of prolonged hospital stay, in-hospital mortality, and 1-year mortality. The HFRS is a minimally onerous frailty assessment tool that can complement perioperative risk stratification in identifying patients at high risk of short- and long-term adverse events.

The Incidence and Prevalence of Cardiac Amyloidosis in a Large Community-Based Cohort in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Despite the improved awareness of cardiac amyloidosis among clinicians, its incidence and prevalence is not well-described in a community setting. We sought to investigate the incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis in the community. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the adult population of Alberta, we examined 3 cohorts: (1) probable cases of cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of physician-assigned diagnosis of amyloidosis (International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 code E85; ICD-9 277.3) and 1 or more health care encounter for heart failure (HF) (ICD-10 I50; ICD-9 428); (2) possible cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of clinical phenotypes suggestive of amyloidosis; and (3) a comparator HF cohort without amyloidosis. Between 2004 and 2018, 982 of the 145,329 patients with HF were identified as probable cardiac amyloidosis. During the same period, the incidence rates of probable cardiac amyloidosis increased from 1.38 to 3.69 per 100,000 person-years and the prevalence rates increased from 3.42 to 14.85 per 100,000 person-years (Ptrend < .0001). Patients with probable cardiac amyloidosis were more likely to be male, have a higher comorbidity burden, greater health care use, and poorer outcomes as compared with patients with HF without amyloidosis. A much larger group of patients was identified as possible cardiac amyloidosis (n = 46,255), with similar increase in prevalence from 2004 to 2018 (from 416 to 850 per 100,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis has increased over the last decade. Given the advent of new therapies for cardiac amyloidosis and considering their high cost, it is imperative to devise strategies to screen, identify, and track patients with cardiac amyloidosis from administrative databases.

Estimated Frequency of Psychodermatologic Conditions in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Psychodermatologic disorders are difficult to identify and treat. Knowledge about the prevalence of these conditions in dermatological practice in Canada is scarce. This hampers our ability to address potential gaps and establish optimal care pathways. OBJECTIVES: To provide an estimate of the frequencies of psychodermatologic conditions in dermatological practice in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: Two administrative provincial databases were used to estimate the prevalence of potential psychodermatological conditions in Alberta from 2014 to 2018. Province-wide dermatology claims data were examined to extract relevant International Classification of Disease codes as available. Claims were linked with pharmacy dispensation data to identify patients who received at least 1 psychoactive medication within 90 days of the dermatology claim. RESULTS: Of 243 963 patients identified, 28.6% had received at least 1 psychotropic medication (mean age: 47.9 years; 67.5% female). Rates of concurrent psychotropic medications were highest for pruritus and related conditions (46.7%), followed by urticaria (44.5%) and hyperhidrosis (32.8%). Among patients with psychotropic medications, rates of antidepressants were highest (56.3%), followed by anxiolytics (37.1%). Across billing codes, besides hyperhidrosis (71.2%), diseases of hair (61.4%) and psoriasis (59.1%) had the highest rates of antidepressant dispensations. Patients with atopic dermatitis had the highest rates for anxiolytic prescriptions (54.3%). CONCLUSION: In a 5-year window, more than a quarter of the identified dermatology patients in Alberta received at least 1 psychotropic medication, pointing to high rates of potential psychodermatologic conditions and/or concurrent mental health issues in dermatology. Diagnostic and care pathways should include a multidisciplinary approach to better identify and treat these conditions.

Association Between Hemoglobin A1c and Major Adverse Coronary Events in Patients with Diabetes Following Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes is associated with a higher risk of major adverse coronary events (MACE) following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Guidelines recommend disparate targets for glycemic control of patients with diabetes who have undergone CABG, ranging from a target hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of < 7.0% to 7.1-8.5%, based on data from non-CABG patients. To date, no study has evaluated the long-term impact of HbA1c concentrations on MACE post-CABG. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between HbA1c and MACE in CABG patients with diabetes. METHODS: A secondary analysis of the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI2D) trial, which enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease, restricted to participants who underwent CABG with ≥ 1 HbA1c measurement post-CABG, was performed. The index date was date of first post-CABG HbA1c measurement. The primary outcome was MACE (composite of death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, or repeat revascularization). Secondary outcomes included MACE components and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards models treating HbA1c as a time-dependent exposure (reference group: HbA1c 6.1-7.0%) were used to derive hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals adjusting for age, sex and baseline characteristics selected by stepwise regression. RESULTS: A total of 549 patients were followed over a median 3.5 years. The median age of the cohort was 64 years, 25.1% were female, and median baseline HbA1c was 6.7%. Compared to achieving an HbA1c 6.1-7.0%, HbA1c > 8.0% was associated with an increased risk of MACE (HR 1.77, 1.01-3.10). This association was strongest for unstable angina (HR 5.21, 1.03-26.39). Achieving an HbA1c ≤ 6.0% was associated with an increased risk of death (HR 2.41, 1.01-5.74). Other comparisons were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Among patients with type 2 diabetes who underwent CABG, achieving HbA1c 6.1-7.0% was associated with a lower risk of MACE and unstable angina versus achieving an HbA1c > 8.0% and lower risk of death versus achieving an HbA1c ≤ 6.0%.

Frequency, predictors, and prognosis of ejection fraction improvement in heart failure: an echocardiogram-based registry study.

AIMS: To identify variables predicting ejection fraction (EF) recovery and characterize prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients with EF recovery (HFrecEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Retrospective study of adults referred for ≥2 echocardiograms separated by ≥6 months between 2008 and 2016 at the two largest echocardiography centres in Alberta who also had physician-assigned diagnosis of HF. Of 10 641 patients, 3124 had heart failure reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (EF ≤ 40%) at baseline: while mean EF declined from 30.2% on initial echocardiogram to 28.6% on the second echocardiogram in those patients with persistent HFrEF (defined by <10% improvement in EF), it improved from 26.1% to 46.4% in the 1174 patients (37.6%) with HFrecEF (defined by EF absolute improvement ≥10%). On multivariate analysis, female sex [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-1.96], younger age (aOR per decade 1.16, 95% CI 1.09-1.23), atrial fibrillation (aOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.68-2.38), cancer (aOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.03-2.26), hypertension (aOR 1.38, 95% CI 1.18-1.62), lower baseline ejection fraction (aOR per 1% decrease 1.07 (1.06-1.08), and using hydralazine (aOR 1.69, 95% CI 1.19-2.40) were associated with EF improvements ≥10%. HFrecEF patients demonstrated lower rates per 1000 patient years of mortality (106 vs. 164, adjusted hazard ratio, aHR 0.70 [0.62-0.79]), all-cause hospitalizations (300 vs. 428, aHR 0.87 [0.79-0.95]), all-cause emergency room (ER) visits (569 vs. 799, aHR 0.88 [0.81-0.95]), and cardiac transplantation or left ventricular assist device implantation (2 vs. 10, aHR 0.21 [0.10-0.45]) compared to patients with persistent HFrEF. Females with HFrEF exhibited lower mortality risk (aHR 0.94 [0.88-0.99]) than males after adjusting for age, time between echocardiograms, clinical comorbidities, medications, and whether their EF improved or not during follow-up. CONCLUSION: HFrecEF patients tended to be younger, female, and were more likely to have hypertension, atrial fibrillation, or cancer. HFrecEF patients have a substantially better prognosis compared to those with persistent HFrEF, even after multivariable adjustment, and female patients exhibit lower mortality risk than men within each subgroup (HFrecEF and persistent HFrEF) even after multivariable adjustment.

Variables Associated With Cardiac Surgical Waitlist Mortality From a Population-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery waitlist recommendations, which were developed based on expert opinion, poorly predict preoperative mortality. Studies reporting risk factors for waitlist mortality have not evaluated the risks including nonadherence to waitlist benchmarks. METHODS: In patients who underwent cardiac surgery or died on the waitlist between 2005 and 2015, we used a Fine and Gray competing risk model to identify independent predictors of waitlist mortality in 12,106 patients scheduled for urgent, semiurgent, or nonurgent surgery. The predictive variables were compared with Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) waitlist recommendations using the Akaike information criterion. RESULTS: A total of 101 (0.8%) patients died awaiting surgery. The median wait times and frequency waitlist deaths among emergent, urgent, semi-urgent, and nonurgent surgery were 0.6, 7.4, 69.0, 55.5 days (P < 0.001) and 6.3%, 0.8%, 0.3%, 0.6% (P < 0.001), respectively. Adherence to CCS waitlist recommendations was higher in patients who died on the waitlist (51.6% vs 70.8%, P = 0.001) and was not predictive of waitlist mortality (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 0.62-0.56). Independent predictors of waitlist mortality were age, aortic surgery, ejection fraction < 35%, urgent surgery, prior myocardial infarction, haemodynamic instability during cardiac catheterization, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. These variables were superior to current CCS guidelines (Akaike information criterion 1251 vs 1317, likelihood ratio test P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CCS waitlist recommendations were poorly predictive of waitlist mortality and the majority of waitlist deaths occur within recommended benchmarks. We identified variables associated with waitlist mortality with improved clinical performance. Our findings suggest a need to re-evaluate cardiac surgical triage criteria using evidence-based data.

The Impact of the Implementation of the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS®) Program in an Entire Health System: A Natural Experiment in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) program has been shown to reduce length of stay (LOS) in colorectal surgical patients in randomized trials. The impact outside of trial settings, or in subgroups of patients excluded from trials such as individuals with diabetes, is uncertain. We conducted this study to evaluate the impact of ERAS implementation in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study and interrupted time series analysis using linked administrative data to examine LOS and postoperative outcomes in the 12 months pre- and post-implementation of ERAS in 2013 for all adults undergoing elective colorectal surgery. RESULTS: Of 2714 patients (mean age 60.4 years, 55% men) with similar demographics and comorbidity profiles in the pre/post-ERAS time periods, LOS was significantly shorter post-ERAS (8.5 vs. 9.5 days, p = 0.01; - 0.84 days [95% CI - 0.04 to - 1.64 days] after adjustment for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, procedure type, surgical approach, and hospital). However, interrupted time series demonstrated no significant level change (p = 0.30) or change in slope (p = 0.63) with ERAS implementation, consistent with continuation of an underlying secular trend of reductions in LOS over time. There were no significant differences (in multivariate analysis or ITS) in risk of 30-day death/readmission (14.3% post vs. 13.5% pre-ERAS, aOR 1.12, 95% CI 0.89-1.40), 30-day death/ED visit (27.2% post vs. 30.0% pre, aOR 0.93, 95% CI 0.78-1.10), or 30-day death/readmission/ED visit (27.8% post vs. 30.6% pre, aOR 0.93, 95% CI 0.78-1.10). The 428 patients with diabetes had longer LOS but exhibited no significant difference post- versus pre-ERAS (10.7 vs. 11.6 days, p = 0.53; p = 0.56 for level change and p = 0.66 for slope change on ITS). CONCLUSION: Although there was a secular trend toward decreasing LOS over time in Alberta, ERAS implementation was not associated with statistically significant changes in LOS or postoperative outcomes for all colorectal surgery patients or for those with diabetes. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating system changes (for both uptake and outcomes) rather than assuming trial benefits will translate directly into practice. Interventions to improve LOS and postoperative outcomes for patients with diabetes undergoing colorectal surgery are still needed even in the ERAS era.

Adverse events in patients with return emergency department visits.

OBJECTIVES: This study describes the proportion of emergency department (ED) returns within 7 days due to adverse events, defined as adverse outcomes related to healthcare received. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: We used an electronically triggered adverse event surveillance system at a tertiary care ED from May to June 2010 to examine ED returns within 7 days of index visit. PARTICIPANTS: One of three trained nurses determined whether the visit was related to index emergency care. For such records, one of three trained emergency physicians conducted adverse event determinations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: We determined adverse event type and severity and analysed the data with descriptive statistics, χ(2) tests and logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 13,495 index ED visits, 923 (6.8%) were followed by ED returns within 7 days. The median age of all patients was 47 years and 52.8% were women. After nursing review, 211 cases required physician review. Of these, 53 visits were adverse events (positive predictive value (PPV)=5.7%, 95% CI 4.4% to 7.4%) and 30 (56.6%) were preventable. Common adverse event types involved management, diagnostic or medication issues. We observed one potentially preventable death and 58.5% of adverse events resulting in transient disability. The PPV of a modified trigger with a cut-off of return within 72 h, resulting in admission was 11.9% (95% CI 6.8% to 18.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Our electronic trigger efficiently identified adverse events among 12% of patients with ED returns within 72 h, requiring hospital admission. Given the high degree of preventability of the identified adverse events, this trigger also holds promise as a performance measurement tool.

Which risk score best predicts perioperative outcomes in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients undergoing noncardiac surgery?

BACKGROUND: Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) are at increased risk for adverse events after noncardiac surgery. The Revised Cardiac Index (RCI) is commonly used to predict perioperative events; however, the prognostic utility of NVAF risk scores (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2CHADS2) has not been evaluated in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. METHODS: Using a population-based data set of NVAF patients (n = 32,160) who underwent major or minor noncardiac surgery between April 1, 1999, and November 30, 2009, in Alberta, Canada, we examined the incremental prognostic value of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2CHADS2 scores over the RCI using continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI). The primary composite outcome was 30-day mortality, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism. RESULTS: The median age was 73 years, 55.1% were male, 6.6% had a previous thromboembolism, 17% of patients underwent major surgery, and the median risk scores were as follows: RCI = 1, CHADS2 = 1, CHA2DS2-VASc = 3, and R2CHADS2 = 2. The incidence of our 30-day composite was 4.2% (mortality 3.3%; stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism 1.2%); and c indices were 0.65 for the RCI, 0.67 for the CHADS2 (NRI 14.3%, P < .001), 0.67 for CHA2DS2-VASc (NRI 10.7%, P < .001), and 0.68 for R2CHADS2 (NRI 11.4%, P < .001). The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2CHADS2 scores were also all significantly better than the RCI for mortality risk prediction (NRI 12.3%, 8.4%, and 13.3%, respectively; all Ps < .01). CONCLUSIONS: In NVAF patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and R2CHADS2 scores all improved the prediction of major perioperative events including mortality compared to the RCI.